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Key takeaways
- Examining over 100,000 articles on the El Paso attack, only 37% associated the attack or attacker to terrorism.
- Between Saturday, August 3 and Monday, August 5, articles that mentioned Patrick Crusius by name were three times more likely to link the attack to terrorism than those that did not.
- The media started labelling the attack as an act of terror more frequently after the authorities characterised it as “domestic terrorism”.
- Donald Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric, and the media reporting of it, increased massively during the two months prior to the attack. There was a total increase of 135% from May to July.
Background
Since the beginning of the year to August 2019, there have been 11 mass-shootings in the U.S. costing the lives of 71 people and leaving 92 more injured. Two of these shootings were committed by white supremacists. The first, on April 27, was at Poway synagogue in California, and the most recent one in El Paso, Texas.
Minutes before massacring 23 people in a shopping centre, Patrick Crusius uploaded a manifesto full of hatred. Crusius labelled Latinx people as “invaders”. His aim and motives were clear; to stop the “invaders” and “defend my country”. He believed that immigration was “detrimental to the future of America.”
Crusius’ manifesto has already been compared to, and seemingly mirrors, views of leading right-wing voices like President Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson. These are public-facing people that have used terms from anti-immigration rhetoric, such as “invasion”, “invaders”, “illegal aliens”, “undocumented immigrants” freely in the past. [1]
Figure 1. Compiled by Brandon Friedman, connecting the views of conservative opinion leaders, anti-immigration rhetoric, and Crusius’ manifesto.
Patrick Crusius’ crimes have been called “domestic terrorism” by both local and national authorities in the US. Nevertheless, this doesn’t necessarily mean that Crusius will face charges of terrorism in court. Recently, James Alex Fields Jr., the white supremacist that drove his car into protesters at Charlottesville, was charged with murder and hate crimes, and not as a terrorist. [2]
Below is a statistical analysis of over 100,000 news items published following the attack in El Paso. It examines how often terms like “terrorism” and “terrorist” are used to describe the shooting and Patrick Crusius respectively. It shows that the media’s use of these terms is directly influenced by prominent figures’ usage of them and anti-immigration rhetoric. Further, we show that news items that refer to Crusius by name are more likely to link him, and his act, to terrorism. Finally, we examine how Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric increased in the months leading up to this attack.
Use of the term terrorist
Our previous research has shown that the media doesn’t use language equally when describing acts of terror committed by white supremacists compared to acts committed by Islamists. Accordingly, we expect that when reporting on El Paso the media will have been unlikely to link the attack to terrorism. [3]
Globally, there were 103,464 articles reporting on the attack, from Saturday, August 3, to Monday, August 5. We also compared global media to four more refined reading lists (from news organisations with greater reach) as part of this project (see Appendix). In these four lists there were 9,962 articles mentioning the attack.
Figure 2. Total coverage of the El Paso attack (Full Reading List).
Of these, only 37,829 articles included at least one of the terms “terrorist”, “terrorism”, or “terror”. Respectively in the four reading lists used for the same time period there were 3,995 articles (40%) that used at least one of the terms “terrorist”, “terrorism” or “terror”.
This means that only 37% of the total articles used one of the aforementioned terms. In our prior study, we found that in the aftermath of six different white supremacist terrorist attacks, only 24.6% of coverage used these terms. By comparison, 67.6% of the media coverage following the Christchurch shooting used these terms. Whilst the media’s response to El Paso seems to be an improvement from the norm, it does appear to be a step backwards after Christchurch. [3]
Figure 3. Number of articles reporting on the attack over time (hourly), each line represents the coverage including and excluding the terms “terrorist”, “terrorism” or “terror”.
Figure 3 compares the number of articles relating the attack to terrorism (the red line) to those that did not (the blue line).
What is apparent from the graph is that there was a delay between the initial reporting on the attack and the moment that the media began to label it as an act of terror. This will be analysed in the following section.
Day-by-day evolution
Saturday, August 3 (The day of the attack)
On the day of the attack (03/08), only 19% of articles reporting on the attack labelled it as an act of terrorism. This is an average of all the articles from all the reading lists used in this project, that adopted at least one of the terms “terrorism”, “terrorist”, “terror”. In the hours immediately following the attack the media was reluctant to class it as a terrorist act.
In articles that did not name the attacker, this figure dropped as low as 6.9%. On the other hand, in articles that refer to Patrick Crusius by name this percentage jumps up to 31.3%. The reason for this is unclear, but it does suggest that the media were more prepared to connect the attacker to terrorism than the mass shooting itself.
Figure 4. Coverage of the attack, numbers and percentages of articles labelling it as an act of terrorism (03/08), divided into the four reading list that were used for this project. Green is marking the highest percentage and red the lowest.
Sunday, August 4
Sunday marked a turning point in the media to characterising the attack as an act of terrorism.
The media used the terms “terrorist”, “terrorism” or “terror” more than twice as frequently than on Saturday, August 3 (from 19% to 42.8%). Early in the day the authorities announced that they were treating the case as “domestic terrorism” (see figure 3). [4] From this moment onwards the media began to use the aforementioned terms more readily.
As was the case with the Christchurch attack [3], the media followed the example of the authorities in naming the event as an act of terrorism. The attack in El Paso further adds to our conclusion that “influential figures may have the ability to shift the narrative around events and topics.”
Interestingly, we see the same trends continuing as the narrative develops. Even as media classification of the shooting as terrorism increased, media about the attack was still 49.9% more likely to describe it as terrorism when Crusius was named than when he remained nameless (35.8%).
Figure 5. Coverage of the attack, numbers and percentages of articles labelling it as an act of terrorism (04/08), divided into the four reading lists that were used for this project. Green is the highest percentage and red the lowest.
Monday, August 5
On Monday, the upward trend continued. More than half (53.2%) of the articles referred to the attack as terrorism. One might attribute this further rise to Trump’s condemnation of white supremacy and racism early on Monday. [5]
Once again, we see that articles that mentioned Crusius by name more readily link the attack to terrorism. Over 65% of articles that name Crusuis linked the attack to terrorism, compared to 41% in articles that did not.
Figure 6. Coverage of the attack, numbers and percentages of articles labelling it as a terrorism act (05/08), divided into the four reading lists that were used for this project. Green is the highest percentage and red the lowest.
The Trump effect
In the aftermath of the attack, there has been a lot of discussion around whether Trump “fuelled” or “provoked” this attack or the attacker. Many have claimed that his rhetoric and comments on immigration, have encouraged far-right extremism. [6] People have pointed, in particular, to Trump’s response to one of his supporters shouting “shoot them”, in reference to immigrants, during one of his rallies in Florida last May. [7]
We looked at how often both Trump and hostile language about immigrants appeared together in global media. During the last three months, Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric, and news reporting on it, has risen dramatically. In June, Trump appeared, in relation to offensive language towards immigrants, in 34,152 articles globally, an increase of 167% from May.
This trend fell slightly, by 11.8%, throughout. Nevertheless, in comparison to April, anti-immigration rhetoric appeared four times more often in July.
Figure 7. Number of articles and figures of increase of articles mentioning Donald Trump in association with terms “illegal immigrant(s)” “illegal alien(s)”, “immigrant invasion”, “undocumented immigrant(s)”.
News pieces that linked Trump to anti-immigration rhetoric increased drastically in both June and July (see below – Figure 7). This massive spike in Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric and media coverage of it is clearly depicted in Figure 7.
This graph shows the volume of articles, mentioning Trump alongside one of the following terms: “illegal (im)migrant(s)” “illegal alien(s)”, “(im)migrant(s) invasion”. Throughout the year, a previous significant spike occurred during January – 20,132 articles. By comparison, June and July saw 34,152 and 10,104 articles respectively, a massive increase.
Figure 8. Volume of articles mentioning Donald Trump in association with terms “illegal (im)migrant(s)” “illegal alien(s)”, “(im)migrant(s) invasion”.
Conclusions
The media seemed unwilling to label this attack as terrorism, especially before the authorities announced that they were treating it as a case of “domestic terrorism”. This further adds to our belief that prominent figures bear a responsibility in correctly labelling terrorism.
An unexpected finding from this study was that the media are more likely to refer to an attack as “terrorism” in articles in which they use the attackers name. On average, between Saturday, August 3 and Monday, August 5, 48.8% of the articles mentioning Crusius used a term that linked the attack to terrorism. In comparison, articles which did not name Crusius only did this on average 28% of the time.
Our data shows that Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric spiked massively during the last two months. The El Paso manifesto echoed a vocabulary that Trump (amongst other public and political figures) spouted increasingly in June and July. Whilst we cannot directly conclude that Trump triggered this attack, it is worth considering whether it would have occurred without his vocal anti-immigration stance.
References
[1] https://theintercept.com/2019/08/05/el-paso-gunmans-fear-migrant-invasion-echoed-donald-trump-fox-news/ [2] https://theintercept.com/2019/03/23/domestic-terrorism-fbi-prosecutions/ [3] https://www.signal-ai.com/blog/lessons-from-christchurch-how-the-media-finally-acknowledged-far-right-terrorism [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/03/us/el-paso-walmart-shooting.html [5] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49240310 [6] https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/john-legend-donald-trump-el-paso-shooting-racism_n_5d488b48e4b0ca604e36b7dd?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFV_KmSQw26yVCUO7GFIk4aBsryQtkGYEyhKqxbHx5rwsNn6eOudHLoex52ruJ4ZKLu4DrJizIhuIRT3_S3E8rcAArRGT_pSFk5kj1YDS3FV2uWUUPbQXKkw6DiNlufV_KdGUSqAhvxJYzhmYcqKvGdN4NI0HuUIW1e4l38I6fHW [7] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/08/05/when-rally-goer-suggested-shooting-immigrants-may-trump-made-joke/Appendix
Lean Right Sources:
Lean Left Sources:
| ABC News (USA) | Mediaite | The Advocate-Messenger |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution | Miami Herald | The Atlantic |
| Austin American-Statesman | Michigan Daily | The Centre View |
| Boston Globe | MTV | The Commercial Appeal |
| Bustle | NBC News | The Economist |
| BuzzFeed | NBC News: Today | The Guardian |
| CBS News | Newsweek | The Independent |
| Chicago Sun-Times | Pacific Standard | The New York Times |
| CNN | Philadelphia Inquirer | The Root |
| Counter Currents | Politico | The Spokesman-Review |
| Daily News (Bowling Green, Kentucky) | Politifact | The Verge |
| Daily Northwestern | Public Integrity | TIME Magazine |
| Daily Targum | Sacramento Bee | US News & World Report |
| Daily Times-Call (Longmont Colorado) | San Jose Mercury News (California) | Vanity Fair |
| Grist | Sky-Hi Daily News | VTDigger |
| Las Vegas Sun | State Journal | Washington Post |
| Los Angeles Times | Teen Vogue | |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | Texas Observer |
Top 50 Global Sources:
| ABC News | Information | Reuters |
| Axios | International Business | Russia Today |
| Barron’s | Times | Sky News |
| BBC | Irish Times | South China Morning Post |
| Bloomberg | Jerusalem Post | Sputnik |
| Boston Globe | Jyllands Posten | Sydney Morning Herald |
| Business Insider | Le Monde | The Daily Telegraph |
| BusinessWeek | Los Angeles Times | The Economist |
| CBS News | Melbourne Age | The Guardian |
| China Daily | MIT Technology Review | The Independent |
| CNBC | MSNBC | The Observer |
| Financial Times | Nature | The Times |
| Forbes | NBC News | The Wall Street Journal |
| Global Capital | New Scientist | TIME |
| Handelsblatt | New York Times | USA Today |
| Harvard Business Review | PBS | Washington Post |
| HuffPost | Politico | Xinhua News |
US Tier One Sources:
| ABC News ABC News (USA) Albuquerque Journal American Banker AP Associated Press Arizona Daily Star Atlanta Journal-Constitution Auburn Reporter Austin American-Statesman BankNxt Barron’s Billings Gazette Bloomberg Bloomberg Alerts Bloomberg BNA Bloomberg Business Bloomberg Businessweek Bloomberg Government Bloomberg Latam Bloomberg Law – Big Law Business Bloomberg New Energy Finance Bloomberg Sports News Bloomberg TV Bloomberg View Bloomberg: Surveillance Show Boston Globe Boston Herald Boston.com Business Insider US Business Wire CBS Evening News CBS News Charleston Gazette Charlotte Observer Chicago Sun-Times Chicago Tribune Chron.com Cincinnati Business Courier (Ohio) CNBC CNN CNN International CNN Money CNN Transcripts CNN Wire Crain’s Chicago Business Dallas Morning News Debtwire Defense Industry Daily Denver – The Huffington Post Denver Post Detroit Free Press Dow Jones Dow Jones Daily Bankruptcy Review Dow Jones DBR Small Cap Alert Dow Jones Financial Information Services Dow Jones Industrial Stocks (DJIA) Dow Jones Institutional News ESPN |
Field & Stream Florida Trend Forbes Forbes.com Fort Worth Business Press (TX) Fortune Fortune Fox Business FOX News Fox News Latino FOXNews.com Global Custodian Good4Utah.com Grand Forks Herald (North Dakota) Hannibal Courier-Post Herald-Times (Bloomington, Indiana) Hospi Medica Hot Springs Sentinel-Record Houston Chronicle Huffington Post Huffington Post (USA) HuffPost IDC International New York Times Lab Medica Las Vegas Review Journal Las Vegas Sun latimes.com – Los Angeles Times Los Angeles – The Huffington Post Los Angeles Times Mattermark Miami Herald Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Mississippi River Clean-Up Morningstar.com MSN Video USA MSNBC MySanAntonio NBC News NBC Sports NBR.com New York – The Huffington Post New York Daily News New York Post New York Post (NY) New York Times New York Times (Abstracts) (NY) Northern Wyoming Daily News Orlando Sentinel Philadelphia Daily News Philadelphia Inquirer Philadelphia Inquirer (PA) Philadelphia Inquirer/Daily News, The (PA) Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Pittsburgh Tribune Review |
Politico Red Herring Reuters Sacramento Bee San Francisco Business Times San Francisco Chronicle San Francisco Examiner Saugus Advertiser (Massachusetts) Seattle Times Silicon Valley Business Journal (California) Sonoma Index-Tribune Sonoma West Times and News St. Louis Post-Dispatch (MO) Technology – Los Angeles Times Technology Blog on The Huffington Post The Alestle: Southern Illinois University – Edwardsville The Atlanta Technology Journal The Beaumont Enterprise (Texas) The Berkshire Eagle (Pittsfield, Massachusetts) The Boston Globe The Dallas Morning News: Blogs The Detroit News (Michigan) The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa) The Hill The Hillsdale Daily News (Michigan) The Houston Chronicle The Huffington Post The Kansas City Star The New York Times The Newtown Bee (Connecticut) The Nightly Business Report The Wall Street Journal TheStreet.com TIME Time TIME Magazine Times – Picayune (New Orleans) Times Herald (Port Huron, Michigan) TMC Net U.S. Fed News USA Today VisitPhilly.com Wall Street Journal Washington Business Journal Washington Post Washington Times Wired WIRED (USA) WWD Yahoo! Finance USA ZDNet |